عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]چکیده [English]
In order to analyze the precipitation of the Larestan area, the rain days with 0.1
millimeter or more were obtained from the Iranian Meteorological Organization for the
1960-2003 period. First the rainy periods with different lengths were identified and
their monthly and seasonal frequencies were calculated. On the monthly basis January
had the highest wet days frequency and winter was the wettest but the spring was the
driest season. The wettest year had 44 rain days while only 11 days were experienced
during the dry year. The mean daily density of rain was 8.2 mm and the mean time
interval between successive rainy periods was 6.2 days. On the average the rainy
period begins each year on 8 of December and ends on 6 of April.
The first order Markov chain was applied to the data series to forecast the wet
periods. The model responded well and was able to forecast significantly and
precisely. The model was fitted best for the runs of one to six days proving the
hypothesis of the study.